Tyler Ennis and the NBA draft: Arguments for going pro vs. returning to Syracuse
Syracuse, N.Y. — Will Tyler Ennis' first year at Syracuse University also be his last?
Inserted into Syracuse's starting lineup right from the get-go as the successor to Michael Carter-Williams, Ennis met or exceeded nearly everybody's expectations. He averaged 12.9 points per game and led the Atlantic Coast Conference in both assists and steals.
After the incredible 25-0 start, Syracuse's season spiraled downward, but Ennis' play actually went up. Syracuse wound up 28-6 on the season after winning just three of its last nine games, but Ennis averaged 16.2 points and 5.1 assists in those nine games.
So now, Ennis and his family will ponder the decision to enter the NBA or return to Syracuse for his sophomore season.
He could become just the third player in Jim Boeheim's 38-year coaching tenure to leave Syracuse for the NBA after just one year, joining Carmelo Anthony and Donte Greene. Or he could follow the path of other former Syracuse players such as Billy Owens, John Wallace and Hakim Warrick who elected to spend another year in college before starting their pro careers.
Here is a breakdown of the arguments for entering the NBA draft and for staying in college for one more year:
GO PRO
Ennis will need to get an accurate reading of where he's likely to go if he enters the NBA draft.
If the information Ennis receives indicates that he's a lottery pick, he would almost have to turn pro.
Yes, many players over the years have returned to school — and that's rarely a bad decision. Tim Duncan played four years at Wake Forest. Chris Webber called a timeout he didn't have and it didn't hurt his draft stock any. Even players who supposedly hurt themselves by returning to school didn't really hurt themselves that much. Oklahoma State's Marcus Smart will still be a Top 10 pick this year.
But Ennis is a 6-foot-2 guard. It's highly unlikely that he will move up in next year's draft as most drafts are usually dominated by big men.
While experts agree that this year's draft is loaded, they're generally talking about the very top of the draft. There are very good players in the first four to five picks. But after the top five, there is a noticeable dropoff.
There is a lack of quality point guards in this year's draft. ESPN's draft expert Chad Ford has just two point guards — Smart and Dante Exum of Australia — rated higher than Ennis.
So Ennis should not think that he'll automatically go much higher next year if he's told that he's in the lottery this year. The NBA's rookie salary cap and the scaled salary system makes the difference between the No. 10 pick in 2014 and the No. 6 pick in 2015 almost insignificant. It's not like when Derrick Coleman decided to return for his senior year and became the No. 1 overall pick in 1990 and wound up signing a rookie deal worth $15 million over five years.
STAY AT SU
Syracuse will be a better team next season if Ennis returns.
Of all the reasons for Ennis to bypass the NBA draft, this is not one. This is a personal decision for Ennis. He needs to make it based on what's best for him and his family. He can't be concerned about what impact his departure may have on the Orange.
But there are reasons why it would be good for Ennis to return to Syracuse for another season.
There's no question that Ennis is ready to be drafted by the NBA, but is he ready to play in the NBA?
Ennis could use another year in college to re-work his jump shot. Before coming to Syracuse, Ennis had a slight hitch in his shot. He would rotate the ball at his waist before bringing the ball up. In the NBA, the hitch makes it difficult for Ennis to take 3-point shots when guarded. Ennis worked often with SU assistant Gerry McNamara to smooth out his jumper, but retooling a shot is usually something that needs to be done in the offseason.
Ennis made 35 percent of his 3-point shots as a freshman, but he only took 85. That's two less than C.J. Fair, a 6-foot-8 forward. Trevor Cooney took roughly 250.
Imagine Ennis with a 3-point shot that he could get off even with a defender on him.
The more ready Ennis is when he gets to the league will mean more playing time, more success and a better chance at a bigger second contract.
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